US-Dollar gefragt - Wahl-Unsicherheit treibt an Von ...

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

Fundamental Australian dollar forecast for today

Are the AUD/USD growth drivers exhausted?

In the second quarter, the Australian economy encountered the deepest downturn since the records started in 1959. Australia’s GDP contracted by 7% Q-o-Q and by 6.3% Y-o-Y. The RBA cut the interest rate to the record lo. The central bank has also bought AU$60 since March amid the QE program. The Aussie should have dropped in value, but the AUD/USD rate has been 32% up since the low hit in March. Doesn’t the major rule of the fundamental analysis “strong economy – strong currency” work here? Now, it perfectly works! The matter is that everything is relative in Forex!
A drop by 6.3% in Australian growth is nothing compared to the US GDP contraction by 32%. AUS$60 billion is very little compared with the trillions of dollars in the USA. In Australia, there are less than 30,000 of coronavirus cases, while there are more than six million of COVID-19 cases in the USA. Australia has managed the pandemic better than many other advanced economies, the economy is not critically weak, the RBA yield control policy allows it not to waste the monetary tools. Besides, China supports Australia’s foreign trade.

Dynamics of RBA interest rate and the Australian dollar exchange rate

Source: Bloomberg
China is the largest market for Australian exports. Although the diplomatic relations between the two countries are tense, after Canberra accused China of COVID-19 laboratory origins, the trade relations are good. Since the beginning of the year, Australia’s exports to China have increased by 75% compared to the same period in 2016, when the last official meeting of the countries’ leaders took place. The core of the China-Australia trade is iron ore. Over the past twelve months, China has imported 700 million tons of iron ore from Australia. It is twice as much as it was in 2010 when the diplomatic relations between Australia and China were much better.

Chinese imports from Australia

Source: Bloomberg
Therefore, the AUD/USD uptrend is strong for several reasons. Australia’s economy is stronger compared to others, China supports Australia’s foreign trade, the Fed’s monetary expansion is unprecedented, which weakens the US dollar. The matter is whether the major bullish drivers have exhausted? Will the Aussie continue its rally?
The analysts polled by Reuters believe the AUD/USD uptrend should slow down. The see the pair trading at 0.72 in one and three months. In six and twelve months, the exchange rate will be at 0.73 and 0.74, accordingly. These levels are close to the current one, which suggests a long consolidation period. In my opinion, it is still relevant to buy the Aussie. China has averted a new round of trade war with the US. The Australian government is working on the income tax reduction bill, which should support GDP growth. The greenback’s’ long-term outlook remains bearish. So, I recommend entering the AUD/USD longs if Australia’s job report for August is positive. The middle-term targets are at 0.75 and 0.763.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Gegen den Dollar wetten als Hedge?

Mein aktuelles Portfolio besteht zu ca. 60% aus US-Aktien, welche natürlich an den Dollar gebunden sind. Nun habe ich über die letzten Tage beobachtet, wie der Dollar gegnüber dem Euro etwas an Wert verloren hat und der Euro-Wert meiner Wertpapiere also auch gesunken ist (bzw. weniger gestiegen als der USD-Wert).
Ich habe keine Ahnung von Forex, glaube aber, dass der Dollar noch deutlich mehr sinken wird (Money Printer go brrr, Handelskrieg, US-Wahlen). Mein Broker bietet sowohl gehebelte "Long Eur, Short USD" ETF's an, als auch EURUSD knockouts mit unterschiedlichsten Hebeln.
Nun zu meiner Frage: Wäre es in meinem Fall richtig einen z.B. 8x EURUSD long mit 1/8 des Wertes meiner USD Aktien zu kaufen? Habe ich also 8000€ in US-Aktien, ca. 1000€ in solch ein Produkt zu stecken oder wie ist das? Auch würde ich gerne wissen, ob es überhaupt sinnvoll ist die Währung zu hedgen? Danke!
submitted by m4r1vs to Finanzen [link] [comments]

So my Brother-In-Law gave up his job as a Vice President of a multinational bank to make this browser-based Foreign-exchange market game - You can win real money with no monetary investment.

Its a good game. Or if Forex is your thing, its a neat way to test your instincts against the market without affecting your real-money holdings.
If you are good at pattern-recognition, you can win money from the game without any knowledge of the forces at work behind the exchange rates.
Anyway: try it. Its free - it is inarguably the best fun you can have with the Aus Dollar / US Dollar currency conversion rate with your clothes on ;)
submitted by TheMotorcycleBoy to Forex [link] [comments]

Complex tax question: CGT consequences of buying and selling overseas shares using overseas currency

Might need to bust out your master tax guide for this one...
I signed up to an overseas trading account to buy NASDAQ-listed shares. I put $5000 AUD in the account, getting me $3500 USD.
Months later, I bought the NASDAQ shares for $3400 USD, leaving $100USD in the trading account. According to my 2013 copy of Australian Tax Law, this constitutes a Forex Realisation Event 1: I disposed of foreign currency. So I have to calculate the gain/loss on:
$3400 USD converted to AUD at the daily rate when I bought the shares (aka disposed of the currency), less
$3400 USD converted to AUD at the daily rate when I bought the currency.
Next, I now have $3400 USD worth of shares, which I later sell for $3700USD. This would also be a CGT event, right? So I have to calculate the AUD value of the shares at the date I bought them (cost base) and sold them (proceeds). Even though I don't get my hands on the money, because the cash is still in USD in the trading account.
Finally, I now have $3700 USD from the sale plus the leftover $100 USD from when I bought the shares, totalling $3800 USD, sitting in the account. When I convert this back to my Australian bank account, I have again disposed of foreign currency, and so have to calculate the gain/loss on:
$3800 USD in AUD when I convert it to AUD (easy enough), less
$3800 USD in AUD... split into $3700 in AUD when I received the share sale proceeds, and $100 in AUD when I originally put money into the account. Is that appropriate?
I hope the steps make sense. In summary, there is a CGT event when you use USD to buy US shares; when you sell the US shares (even though you don't receive Australian money); and when you convert the US proceeds back to actual Australian dollars.
In my situation there is enough of a time lag between each of these events to make them distinct CGT events, I'm thinking.
I'm looking at 22-400 in my old CCH Aus Tax Law guide for the first event, but can't find any additional guidance after that.
submitted by marty_0001 to AusFinance [link] [comments]

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